Šta pokazuju argumenti holandske knjige?

Abstract

The Dutch Book Arguments are one of the main reasons for the great success of the subjective interpretation of probability. These arguments helped the subjective inter-pretation to become a serious candidate for an interpretation of the axioms of prob-ability theory during the period in which there was a certain tendency towards an ob-jectivist and epistemic interpretative direction. Later, the subjective interpretation along with the Dutch Book Arguments was greatly developed in technical terms and became widely used in various scientific fields (e.g. decision and game theory) in which there was a need for probability theory. In this article, we will show how and why the Dutch Book arguments were essential for the subjective interpretation during its de-velopment, which additions to the arguments were made later, and then we will show the main substantive assumptions of the argument. Finally, we will analyze the plau-sibility of the assumptions and show that, in order to preserve the goals and conclu-sions of the Dutch Book Arguments, we should adopt a version of interpretative prim-itivism within the subjective interpretation of probability.

Argument(i) Holandske knjige su jedan od glavnih razloga za veliki uspeh subjektivne interpretacije verovatnoća. Ovakvi argumenti su subjektivnu interpretaciju učinili ozbiljnim kandidatom za interpreta-ciju u okviru teorije verovatnoće, u doba kada su interpretativni napo-ri favorizovali objektivističke i epistemičke pravce. Kasnije, subjektiv-na interpretacija, zajedno sa argumentima Holandske knjige, dobila je veliki tehnički razvoj i veliku upotrebu u mnogim disciplinama u kojima postoji potreba za upotrebu teorije verovatnoće, poput teorije odluči-vanja ili teorije igara. U ovom radu, ukratko ćemo prikazati zbog čega su argumenti Holandske knjige bili potrebni subjektivnoj interpretaciji u njenom razvoju, kakve dopune su ti argumenti tokom vremena doži-veli i zbog čega, a potom i prikazati glavne supstantivne pretpostavke tih argumenata. Najzad, analiziraćemo održivost takvih pretpostavki, i pokazati da, ne bismo li u potpunosti sačuvali svrhu i domete argume-nata Holandske knjige, najbolje je odlučiti se za izvestan interpretativ-ni primitivizam u okviru subjektivne interpretacije verovatnoće.