Keynesova teorija konvencionalnog odlučivanja na finansijskim tržištima
Keynes' theory of conventional decision-making in financial markets
dc.creator | Radonjić, Ognjen | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-10-12T10:59:38Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-10-12T10:59:38Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2009 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0038-0318 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://reff.f.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/910 | |
dc.description.abstract | Pitanje koje se postavlja u ovom radu je da li finansijska tržišta funkcionišu na način koji je opisan danas i dalje dominantnom modernom teorijom efikasnih finansijskih tržišta. Stojimo na stanovištu da moderna teorija efikasnih tržišta svoje zaključke bazira na nerealnim pretpostavkama da je budućnost predvidiva i ergodična. Pošto pretpostavke modela impliciraju njegove zaključke, nerealne pretpostavke impliciraju netačne i neprimenljive teorijske modele. Za razliku od neoklasične teorije, Keynes je insistirao na tome da je budućnost fundamentalno neizvesna i neergodična. U tim okolnostima, kada ne postoji osnova za kalkulaciju budućeg toka stvari, jedino što je racionalno za agente na finansijskim tržištima je da svoje odluke donose na bazi društveno prihvatljivih konvencija. Dosledno, pošto su tako formirana očekivanja nestabilna, i pošto očekivanja na bazi kojih se donose odluke kreiraju budućnost, moguće je dokazati da je finansijskim tržištima inherentna nestabilnost. | sr |
dc.description.abstract | The question addressed in this paper is whether financial markets actually function in the manner described by the today still dominant modern theory of efficient financial markets. We argue that the theory's conclusions are based on unreal assumptions that the future is predictable and ergodic. Since assumptions of a model determine its conclusions, unreal assumptions imply incorrect and inapplicable theoretical models. In contrast to neoclassical theory, Keynes insisted that future was fundamentally uncertain and nonergodic. Under such circumstances, when it is not possible to calculate the future, the only rational thing for agents in financial markets to do is to base their decisions on socially acceptable conventions. Consequently, since convention-based expectations are unstable and since expectations create future it is possible to prove that financial markets are inherently unstable. | en |
dc.publisher | Sociološko udruženje Srbije i Crne Gore, Beograd i Univerzitet u Beogradu - Filozofski fakultet - Institut za sociološka istraživanja, Beograd | |
dc.relation | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MESTD/MPN2006-2010/149005/RS// | |
dc.rights | openAccess | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ | |
dc.source | Sociologija | |
dc.subject | rizik | sr |
dc.subject | nestabilnost | sr |
dc.subject | konvencije | sr |
dc.subject | investicije | sr |
dc.subject | intersubjektivnost | sr |
dc.subject | fundamentalna neizvesnost | sr |
dc.subject | risk | en |
dc.subject | investments | en |
dc.subject | intersubjectivity | en |
dc.subject | instability | en |
dc.subject | fundamental uncertainty | en |
dc.subject | conventions | en |
dc.title | Keynesova teorija konvencionalnog odlučivanja na finansijskim tržištima | sr |
dc.title | Keynes' theory of conventional decision-making in financial markets | en |
dc.type | article | |
dc.rights.license | BY-NC | |
dc.citation.epage | 364 | |
dc.citation.issue | 4 | |
dc.citation.other | 51(4): 337-364 | |
dc.citation.rank | M24 | |
dc.citation.spage | 337 | |
dc.citation.volume | 51 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.2298/SOC0904337R | |
dc.identifier.fulltext | http://reff.f.bg.ac.rs/bitstream/id/2432/907.pdf | |
dc.identifier.scopus | 2-s2.0-76649118136 | |
dc.type.version | publishedVersion |