Deblokada 'druge demografske tranzicije'?

Abstract

U tekstu se ponovo preispituje od ranije prisutna dilema da li je Srbija (bez Kosova i Metohije) zemlja druge demografske tranzicije, odnosno da li je ona (de)blokirana, pod pretpostavkom da se radi o svetskoistorijskom procesu preobražaja industrijalizovanih populacija sveta. Poslednja teza oko koje postoji puno kontroverzi u savremenoj populacionoj teoriji ovom prilikom nije detaljnije obrađivana, već je, naprotiv, uzeta kao opšti teorijski okvir u analizi novijih tendencija u kretanju režima braka i rađanja u Srbiji, kao i zapadnim i zemljama postsocijalističke transformacije. Posebna pažnja je posvećena ideacionim promenama, odnosno specifičnosti vrednosnog profila populacije savremene Srbije, što je jedna od najbitnijih determinanti socijetalnog okvira, koji deluje u pozadini navedenih, agregatnih demografskih pokazatelja. Najzad, postavlja se hipoteza, koju treba dalje ispitivati, kako dubinskim, tako i komplementarnim pristupima, da bi ubrzanje druge tranzicije i intenziviranje individualizacije ne samo partnerstva, već i roditeljstva, uz podizanje životnog standarda i društvenu podršku usklađivanju rada i porodice, imali značajne emancipatorske, a onda i pozitivne socioekonomske i demografske efekte.

The text is re-examining the previously established dilemma related to whether Serbia (without Kosovo and Metohija) is the country of second demographic transition, i.e.: has the transition been de-blocked, under the assumption that this is a worldwide historical process of transformation of industrialized countries. The last thesis, around which there exists a lot of controversy in the contemporary population theory, is however not dealt with in detail; to the contrary, it is used as the general theoretical framework for the exploration of the most recent tendencies in the transformation of nuptiality and fertility regime in Serbia, as well as in the western and countries in post-socialist transformation. Special attention is given to the ideational changes, more precisely to the specific features of the value profile of the Serbian population, which is one of the most important determinants of the societal framework, that acts in the back of the afore mentioned aggregate demographic indicators. Finally, the hypothesis is posed (which should be further investigated by means of in-depth research and complementary approach) that the speeding-up of the second demographic transition and intensification of the individualisation not only of the partnership but of the parenthood as well, accompanied with the rise of living standard and social support to balancing work and family, would have produced important emancipating and, concomitantly, positive socioeconomic and demographic effects.