Promene bračnosti i porodičnih modela u postsocijalističkim zemljama - zakasnela i nepotpuna ili specifična druga demografska tranzicija?

Abstract

Rad ukazuje na kontekstualne specifičnosti teorije druge demografske tranzicije u postsocijalističkim zemljama, a posebno u Srbiji. Osnovni argument je da se promene u sferi bračnosti i porodične organizacije u postsocijalističkim društvima ne mogu posmatrati samo kao zakasnele ili nepotpune u odnosu na iskustvo razvijenih evropskih zemalja, već da su odraz specifičnog procesa modernizacije ovih društava. U prvom delu iznose se neke teorijske generalizacije posmatranih fenomena, zasnovane na istraživanjima razvijenih evropskih zemalja, a potom i (post)socijalističkih zemalja, i ukazuje na neadekvatnost primene istih metodoloških instrumenata u zemaljama različitog društveno-ekonomskog i institucionalnog konteksta. U drugom delu rada razmatrani koncepti se kontekstualizaciju u odnosu na promene u Srbiji i ilustruju na podacima nekoliko skorašnjih socioloških istraživanja. Pokazuje se da kontekst ratnih dešavanja, nacionalnih sukoba i spore društveno-ekonomske transformacije otežava strukturne preduslove promena bračnosti i porodičnih modela i doprinosi ambivalentnosti u sferi vrednosti, te paradoksu da osobe sa nižim obrazovanjem i dohotkom, iako imaju tradicionalnije i konzervativnije vrednosti, postaju nosioci kohabitacija i vanbračnih rađanja. Tvrdi se da u Srbiji dominiraju adaptivne strategije postojećih obrazaca bračnosti (porodice), tako da i u okviru proširenih porodica utočište nalazi dobar broj jednoroditeljskih porodica, pa i kohabitacionih zajednica. Dok relativna deprivacija viših slojeva inhibira izbor alternativnih opcija, apsolutna deprivacija nižih slojeva ponekad rezultira neželjenim oblicima ponašanja, i uslovljava veću zastupljenost kohabitacija i vanbračnih rođenja na donjem delu socijalne stratifikacije. Očekuje se da i sa strukturnim napretkom Srbija zadrži obeležja vrednosnog familizma, te da kohabitacije budu dominantno predbračne, uz porast broja onih koje su u skladu sa (izmenjenim) željama/preferencama aktera.

The paper starts by questioning the theory of second demographic transition (SDT) and its universal relevance in the field of marriage behavior and family organization in low fertility context, arguing for more differentiated approaches. With an aim to illustrate the contextual specifics of post-socialist countries in general and of Serbia in particular, the author claims that analyzed changes have not just been delayed or incomplete in comparison to more developed European countries, but shaped by specific modernization processes, which led to rationally developed strategies in overcoming structural risks, although, without ideational changes typical to the theory of SDT. Slow changes in marital behavior and family organization in Serbia are illustrated in recent sociological (empirical) research findings. The perceived changes are linked to specific structural risks (war, slow transformation and enduring economic hardships, weak state and low trust in institutions, etc) and value characteristics (persistence of materialism and traditionalism, but with increasing ambivalence). The connection between structural and ideational changes is considered through social stratification variable by relying on Coale's model on necessary preconditions for behavioral changes as well as on social deprivation concept. Having in mind upper social strata (more educated and better off), the value changes precede the behavioral that are adapted to economic uncertainty, which still force more traditional marital and family patterns. Therefore, there is a rank of different options, from extended family (for a short period at the beginning of marriage or after divorce) to separated leaving (of married partners) in parental households (due to refusing the extended family option thus creating quite specific 'living apart together' form), combined with dominant strategy of prolonging the marriage. Hence, for upper social strata, marriage is still a universal but negotiable institution since more alternative options (although attractive and in accordance to changing values) are deemed irrational (have no obvious benefit). As regards the lower social strata (less educated and worse off), marriage is more in accordance with their higher inclination to traditional values, but general value liberalization legitimizes possible failures (divorces, extra marital births), which, even if not desired or economically rational, happen due to lower capacity to command life. For that reason, cohabitations and extra marital births are more common among actors at the lower end of the stratification ladder. The paper concludes that adaptive strategies related to traditional patterns of family organization dominate in Serbia, which might be illustrated by the fact that every third of one parent families lives in extended families. Even with significant structural changes (and economic improvements) in Serbia in the near future it is realistic to expect familism as an influential context, which suggests the spreading of cohabitation primarily as a pre- marital option (but more desired than forced).