Prognostička valjanost kriterijuma za upis na studije pedagogije i vrsta prethodno završene srednje škole

Abstract

U radu se proverava prognostička valjanost kriterijuma koji se koriste za selekciju kandidata prilikom upisa na studije pedagogije. Polazi se od analize shvatanja prognostičke valjanosti kao specifične vrste valjanosti. Posebna pažnja usmerena je na razmatranje uloge i značaja moderatorskih varijabli u procesu provere prognostičke valjanosti. Cilj empirijskog istraživanja bio je da se ispita mogućnost predikcije uspeha na studijama pedagogije na osnovu postignuća na kriterijumima za upis na studije, u grupi studenata koji su prethodno završili gimnaziju i u grupi onih koji su završili srednju stručnu školu. Uzorkom je obuhvaćeno pet generacija diplomiranih studenata pedagogije. Za prikupljanje podataka korišćena je tehnika analize sadržaja. U obradi podataka primenjena je multipla linearna regresiona analiza. U obe grupe ispitanika formirane prema vrsti prethodno završene srednje škole, razlikama na skupu prediktora uzetih zajedno (uspeh u srednjoj školi, postignuće na testu znanja i na testu opšte informisanosti), može da se objasni samo manji deo od ukupne varijanse kriterijumske varijable (prosečna ocena na studijama). Najpouzdanija pretpostavka o prognozi prosečne ocene na studijama pedagogije može da se dâ na osnovu postignuća na testu znanja za studente sa završenom gimnazijom, a na osnovu uspeha u srednjoj školi za studente koji su završili srednju stručnu školu.

In this paper we are checking prognostic validity of the criteria used for candidate selection for the Pedagogical Studies enrolment. We are starting from the analysis of understanding prognostic validity as specific sort of validity. Special attention is focused towards discussing the role and significance of moderators' variables in the process of checking prognostic variables. The aim of the empirical research was studying the possibilities of prediction of success of studying pedagogy based on the achievement on the criteria for enrolling the Faculty. We are starting from the analysis of prognostic validity as a specific sort of validity. Special attention was focused to studying the role and importance of moderators' variables in the process of checking prognostic validity. The aim of the empirical research has been studying prediction of the success of the studies of pedagogy based on the criteria of enrolment at the Faculty, in the group of students who previously finished the high school and in the group of those who completed a vocational school. The sample included five generations of the Pedagogy graduates. For the data collection we used the technique of contents analysis. Data processing was applied by the multiple linear regression analysis. Both groups of interviewees were formed by the sort of previously completed high school, differences in the group of predictors taken together (marks from the high school, achievement at the knowledge test and the general knowledge test), can be explained that only the minor part of the whole variance of the criteria variable (average mark during studies). The most precise assumption about the prognosis of the average mark in the Pedagogy studies can be given based on the students achievement at the knowledge test for the students who completed the high school, and based on the marks from the high school, for students who completed the vocational school.