Prediktori izborne apstinencije mladih u Srbiji

Abstract

U radu se analizira značaj činilaca izborne apstinencije mladih koji se nalaze u fokusu vodećih eksplanatornih modela izborne participacije - sociodemografskog, modela partijske identifikacije i kognitivnog modela. Ispitivana je relevantnost većeg broja sociodemografskih varijabli, partijske identifikacije, političkog cinizma, političkog interesovanja i političkog znanja kao prediktora izborne apstinencije mladih. Istraživanje je sprovedeno na uzorku od 788 maturanata iz 25 beogradskih srednjih škola. Rezultati analize ukazuju na to da su najvažniji prediktori izborne apstinencije mladih partijska identifikacija, političko interesovanje, formalni aktivizam (članstvo u organizacijama) i obrazovni nivo majke. Šanse da se partijski neidentifikovana mlada osoba naše u grupi apstinenata su 3.6 puta veće nego u slučaju partijski identifikovanih; šanse za izbornu apstinenciju rastu s opadanjem nivoa političkog interesovanja i formalnog aktivizma, ali i s porastom obrazovnog nivoa majke. Dobijeni rezultati diskutovani su u kontekstu postuliranih modela izborne participacije, kao i rezultata ranijih istraživanja.

The paper presents an analysis of the importance of some of the determinants of youth electoral absenteeism, which are in the focus of the predominant explanatory models of electoral participation - socio-demographic, party identification and cognitive model. The relevance of numerous socio-demographic characteristics, party identification, political cynicism, political interest, and political knowledge as predictors of youth electoral absenteeism were analyzed. This research was conducted on a sample of 788 fourth grade secondary school students attending 25 secondary schools in Belgrade. The results indicated that party identification, political interest, organizational membership and mother's level of education were significant predictors of electoral absenteeism. For young persons without party identification the odds of non-voting were 3.6 times higher than the non-voting odds of their counterparts but with party identification. The odds of electoral absenteeism increased with the decreasing level of political interest or organizational membership as well as with the increasing level of mother's level of education. The obtained results were discussed in the context of the proposed explanatory model of electoral participation as well as some previous research findings.