The Approximate Bayesian Computation approach to reconstructing population dynamics and size from settlement data: demography of the Mesolithic-Neolithic transition at Lepenski Vir

Abstract

Demographic aspects of prehistoric populations have an important role in current archaeological theory and empirical research. In this study, we develop a method to estimate population dynamics and population size and apply it to data on house remains at one of key European Mesolithic-Neolithic transitional sites - Lepenski Vir (Serbia). Lepenski Vir is a site located in the Danube Gorges, well-known for its trapezoidal house floors and stone sculpture. It was most intensively occupied between similar to 6200 and similar to 6000 cal BC, the so called Transitional phase, which corresponds to the beginning of the Neolithic in Central Balkans. We combine archaeological evidence and ethnographic information with mathematical models of population dynamics and house accumulation within a Bayesian framework (Approximate Bayesian Computation) to derive posterior distributions of growth rate and population size estimates for the Lepenski Vir population in this period.