Darwin meets dr. Frankenstein: Using the Drake equation to calculate the probability of volcanic lightning's impact on chemical evolution

Abstract

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) has been a paramount mechanism of interest in recent literature addressing the origins of biological evolution. However, research on lightning-triggered electroporation represents the innovative and still insufficiently grasped approach to HGT (Kotnik, 2013). On the other hand, prebiotic synthesis is a fundamental process for chemical evolution. Recently, the effects of volcanic lightning on nitrogen fixation and phosphate reduction have also been considered (Navarro-González and Segura, 2004). This paper aims to present a top-down approach to the question of the origin of life on early Earth. By considering the conditions necessary for the emergence of biological and chemical evolution, emphasizing electrostatic discharges, we will attempt to link previous theoretical and experimental research. Furthermore, we will present a recent endeavor at applying the Drake equation to calculating the probability of volcanic lightning impact on the prebiotic synthesis and derive a similar use in estimating the contribution of lightning to HGT (Weaver, 2013). We will also display that choosing a type of probability appropriate for the context of life sciences is not necessarily a quantitative issue. Finally, we will show that significant conceptual constraints, like determining the relevant factors and sources of uncertainty when considering the origin of life on early Earth, are fundamentally philosophical issues. We hope that the results of our research – deriving Drake’s equation in the domain of chemical evolution and considering Bayesian and counterfactual types as potentially more suitable candidates for calculating probabilities in the evolutionary framework – will contribute to developing new discussions in life sciences.