Између страха, сумње и стварности. Југославија и суседне земље Варшавског пакта 1968.

Abstract

У раду се на основу објављених и необјављених документарних извора и историографске и мемоарске литературе домаћег, совјетског, бугарског, румунског, албанског и западног порекла анализира утицај војне интервенције земаља Варшавског пакта у Чехословачкој 1968. на спољнополитички положај Југославије и њен однос са суседним земљама чланицама Источног блока – Албанијом, Бугарском, Румунијом и Мађарском. Аутор разматра и генезу широко распрострањене политичкопропагандне тезе о наводној војној угрожености Југославије од стране земаља окупљених у оквиру Варшавског пакта.

The USSR-led military intervention of five Warsaw pact countries in Czechoslovakia in August 1968 caused many negative reactions in Yugoslavia. Previous Yugoslav opposition to the Soviet Union and support to the reformistic course taken by the new Czechoslovakian party leadership led to new fears among Yugoslav party, military and country leaders that the Soviet Union, demonstrating its new concept of foreign policy and of relations within the socialist world, might military intervene in Yugoslavia. Yugoslav fears were also fueled by moments of crisis in the Yugoslav society, unsatisfactory conditions in Yugoslav People’s Army and by wide geographical exposure towards neighboring Warsaw pact countries. Immediately after the military intervention in Czechoslovakia had begun, there were several events that were very encouraging for the Yugoslav side. Albania’s full distancing and formal exit from the Warsaw pact, along with its condemnation of the actions in Czechoslovakia and its shy offer of alliance to Yugoslavia strengthened Yugoslav position in the Balkans, while Romanian opposition to Soviet actions in Czechoslovakia strengthened Yugoslav-Romanian relations and formed basis for general strengthening of cooperation between the two countries in the coming years. Although there was danger of potential military action against Yugoslavia from territories of Bulgaria and Hungary, there were no major military or political indications that a military intervention of the EastEuropean countries against Yugoslavia should be expected. Quick normalization of relations with the Soviet Union followed in the coming months, opening newways for military-technological and economic cooperation, and for talks about the new system of collective security in Europe, but it also opened new direction of Yugoslav foreign policy in the Mediterranean region which was more and more becoming scene of the new round of the Cold war tensions