Prekomponovanje braka, partnerstva i porodice u savremenim društvima

Abstract

U radu se opisuju savremene promene u braku, partnerstvu i porodici u evropskim populacijama, a zatim se prikazuje njihova evolucija od poslednjih dekada XX veka pa do danas, kao i različiti oblici i tipovi u kojima se ispoljava pluralitet savremenih partnerskih zajednica. Drugi cilj ovog priloga jeste da pruži jedan širi teorijsko-hipotetički, eksplanatorni okvir za razumevanje onoga što se zbiva u stanovništvu (na pojavnoj ravni), ali sada u kontekstu savremenih društava. Tu se uvode tri varijable: makro (paradigma modernizacije, odnosno socijetalnih, tj. strukturalnih i kulturnih promena), mikro (paradigma: resursi-ograničenja-ponašanje) i mezo (razlike u društvenom i demografskom razvitku država severne, zapadne, južne i centralne i istočne Evrope (bivših socijalističkih zemalja u tranziciji). U radu je dato i oprezno predviđanje šta se u budućnosti može očekivati u vezi sa: empirijski dokumentovanom raznolikošću životnih aranžmana evropske populacije Zapada, ali i Istoka, kao i relevantnim demografskim posledicama. Na makronivou (paradigma struktura/kultura) odgovori zavise od brzine kojom će se odvijati dva glavna društvena procesa: 1) razvitak "evropskog društva" i 2) rađanje "svetskog" (globalnog) društva. Većina autora izvodi zaključak o konvergenciji društvenog i demografskog razvitka na prostoru Zapadne, ali ne i Istočne Evrope (a posebno Balkana). Ovaj zaključak se tiče čak i država Južnoevropskog regiona, s obzirom da je neizvesno kojim će se pravcima i brzinom odvijati njihovo uključivanje u Evropsku uniju. U vezi sa trendom opadajućeg fertiliteta, može se očekivati nastavak tendencije i u budućnosti, na čitavom evropskom prostoru, a podržavaće ga socijetalne promene (post)modernizacije, individualizacije i racionalnog ponašanja, tako da će u većini slučajeva roditelji zadovoljavati svoje potrebe sa samo jednim detetom. Nasuprot, porodične forme i životni stilovi stanovništva odražavaće verovatno i u buduće razlike između država severa i zapada Evrope sa jedne, juga sa druge i Centralne i Istočne Evrope (bivših socijalističkih zemalja) sa treće strane. Bračna spremnost, stilovi partnerstva, kao i težnja ka formiranju porodice zavisiće od individualnih odluka, koje će proizlaziti iz ličnih resursa i ograničavajućih faktora (na makro, mezo i mikro planu). Na agregatnom nivou stanovništava, rezultat će biti polarizacija između ne-porodičnih i porodičnih domaćinstava. Društveni uslovi pozne modernosti (povećanje rizika, nesigurnosti radnog mesta, kriza države blagostanja) kao i globalizacije verovatno će doprineti pojačavanju te polarizacije. Isti zaključak se može izvesti i za grupu bivših socijalističkih država Centralne i Istočne Evrope (i Balkana), čiji je sada ključni problem dovršavanje procesa transformacije ka tržišnoj privredi.

This paper describes contemporary changes in marriage, relationships and family in European populations, and then their evolution from the last decade of the twentieth century till present day, as well as various forms and types, in which plurality of contemporary partnership unions is revealed. The other goal of this supplement was to provide a wider theoretical-hypothetical, explanatory framework for understanding what is happening in population (on appearance level) but now in the context of contemporary societies. Three variables are introduced: macro (paradigm of modernization, namely social, i.e. structural and cultural changes), micro (paradigm: resources-limitations-behavior) and mezzo (differences in social and demographic development of countries of North, Western, South and Central and Eastern Europe (former socialistic countries in transition). Cautious predictions on what could be expected in future concerning: empirical documented differences of living arrangements of European populations of the West, but also of the East, as well as relative demographic consequences. On the macro level (paradigm structure/culture) the responses depend on the rate the two main social processes will develop: 1) development of "European society", and 2) the birth of "world" (global) society. Most of the authors conclude on the convergence of social and demographic development on the territory of Western, but not Eastern Europe (and especially the Balkans). This conclusion concerns even the countries of the South European region, considering that it is uncertain in which direction and speed will their integration into the European Union develop. With regards to the trend of decreasing fertility, a continuance of existing secular tendencies may be expected in future as well, even on the whole European territory, and that it will be supported by social changes of (post) modernization, individualization and rational behavior, so that it will become a general model. For now it is evident that convergence of social and demographic development may be demonstrated on the territory of Western but not Eastern Europe as well (and especially of the Balkans). The later is also valid when the Southern European region is in question, considering that it is uncertain in which direction and at what speed will their integration into the European Union develop. With regards to the trend of decreasing fertility, a continuance of tendencies may be expected in future as well, on the whole European territory, and that it will be supported by social changes of (post) modernization, individualization and rational behavior, so that in most cases parents will satisfy their needs with only one child. On the contrary, family forms and life styles will probably reflect differences between countries of the North and Western Europe in future as well on the one hand, and Southern on the other hand, and Central and Eastern Europe (former socialistic countries) on the third hand. Readiness for marriage, partnership styles, as well as aspirations to forming families will depend on individual decisions, which will result from personal resources and limiting factors (macro, mezzo and micro). On the aggregate level of population, the result will be polarization between non-family and family households. Social conditions of foregoing modernization (increase of risks, job uncertainty, country prosperity crisis) as well as globalization will probably contribute to increasing the polarization process. The same conclusion may be derived for the group of former socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe (and the Balkans) as well, whose key problem now is finishing the process of transformation towards market economy.