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Racionalni špekulativni baloni - kritički pogled

Rational speculative bubbles: A critical view

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2007
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Radonjić, Ognjen
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Abstract
Prema teorija racionalnih balona, balon je prisutan kad god cena efekta progresivno divergira od nivoa koji je određen ekonomskim fundamentima, jer tržišni učesnici očekuju da će cena efekta nastaviti da raste eksponencijalno u budućnosti (samo-ispunjavajuća očekivanja), što obećava značajan rast u kapitalnim dobicima. Naša osnovna primedba na model se odnosi na pretpostavku da su tržišni učesnici savršeno racionalni, informisani i da formiraju homogena očekivanja. Modelom se ne objašnjava proces donošenja odluka i formiranja očekivanja i ne detektuju se potencijalni psihološki i institucionalni faktori koji mogu imati značajan uticaj na odlučivanje, pa samim tim i reakciju tržišnih agenata na nove vesti. Pošto se valjanost modela procenjuje na bazi njegovih pretpostavki, zaključujemo da su dometi ovog modela, blago rečeno, limitirani.
According to the theory of rational bubbles, the bubble is present whenever asset prices progressively diverge from their fundamental value, which occurs because agents expect that asset prices will continue to grow exponentially (self-fulfilling prophecies) far in the future and consistently, which promises the realization of ever larger capital gains. In our opinion, the basic shortcoming of this theory refers to the assumption that all market agents are perfectly informed and rational and, accordingly, form homogeneous expectations. The model does not explain decision-making processes or expectation formation, nor does it detect potential psychological and institutional factors that might significantly influence decision making processes and market participants’ reactions to news. Since assumptions of the model critically determine its validity, we conclude that comprehensiveness of the rational bubble model is, to put it mildly, limited.
Keywords:
racionalni špekulativni baloni / racionalna očekivanja / kapitalni dobitak / fundamentalna vrednost / efikasna finansijska tržišta / rational speculative bubbles / rational expectations / fundamental value / efficient financial markets / capital gain
Source:
Economic Annals, 2007, 52, 174-175, 73-99
Publisher:
  • Univerzitet u Beogradu - Ekonomski fakultet, Beograd

DOI: 10.2298/EKA0775073R

ISSN: 0013-3264

Scopus: 2-s2.0-38049136700
[ Google Scholar ]
URI
http://reff.f.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/720
Collections
  • Radovi istraživača / Researcher's publications - Odeljenje za sociologiju
Institution/Community
Sociologija / Sociology
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Radonjić, Ognjen
PY  - 2007
UR  - http://reff.f.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/720
AB  - Prema teorija racionalnih balona, balon je prisutan kad god cena efekta progresivno divergira od nivoa koji je određen ekonomskim fundamentima, jer tržišni učesnici očekuju da će cena efekta nastaviti da raste eksponencijalno u budućnosti (samo-ispunjavajuća očekivanja), što obećava značajan rast u kapitalnim dobicima. Naša osnovna primedba na model se odnosi na pretpostavku da su tržišni učesnici savršeno racionalni, informisani i da formiraju homogena očekivanja. Modelom se ne objašnjava proces donošenja odluka i formiranja očekivanja i ne detektuju se potencijalni psihološki i institucionalni faktori koji mogu imati značajan uticaj na odlučivanje, pa samim tim i reakciju tržišnih agenata na nove vesti. Pošto se valjanost modela procenjuje na bazi njegovih pretpostavki, zaključujemo da su dometi ovog modela, blago rečeno, limitirani.
AB  - According to the theory of rational bubbles, the bubble is present whenever asset prices progressively diverge from their fundamental value, which occurs because agents expect that asset prices will continue to grow exponentially (self-fulfilling prophecies) far in the future and consistently, which promises the realization of ever larger capital gains. In our opinion, the basic shortcoming of this theory refers to the assumption that all market agents are perfectly informed and rational and, accordingly, form homogeneous expectations. The model does not explain decision-making processes or expectation formation, nor does it detect potential psychological and institutional factors that might significantly influence decision making processes and market participants’ reactions to news. Since assumptions of the model critically determine its validity, we conclude that comprehensiveness of the rational bubble model is, to put it mildly, limited.
PB  - Univerzitet u Beogradu - Ekonomski fakultet, Beograd
T2  - Economic Annals
T1  - Racionalni špekulativni baloni - kritički pogled
T1  - Rational speculative bubbles: A critical view
EP  - 99
IS  - 174-175
SP  - 73
VL  - 52
DO  - 10.2298/EKA0775073R
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Radonjić, Ognjen",
year = "2007",
abstract = "Prema teorija racionalnih balona, balon je prisutan kad god cena efekta progresivno divergira od nivoa koji je određen ekonomskim fundamentima, jer tržišni učesnici očekuju da će cena efekta nastaviti da raste eksponencijalno u budućnosti (samo-ispunjavajuća očekivanja), što obećava značajan rast u kapitalnim dobicima. Naša osnovna primedba na model se odnosi na pretpostavku da su tržišni učesnici savršeno racionalni, informisani i da formiraju homogena očekivanja. Modelom se ne objašnjava proces donošenja odluka i formiranja očekivanja i ne detektuju se potencijalni psihološki i institucionalni faktori koji mogu imati značajan uticaj na odlučivanje, pa samim tim i reakciju tržišnih agenata na nove vesti. Pošto se valjanost modela procenjuje na bazi njegovih pretpostavki, zaključujemo da su dometi ovog modela, blago rečeno, limitirani., According to the theory of rational bubbles, the bubble is present whenever asset prices progressively diverge from their fundamental value, which occurs because agents expect that asset prices will continue to grow exponentially (self-fulfilling prophecies) far in the future and consistently, which promises the realization of ever larger capital gains. In our opinion, the basic shortcoming of this theory refers to the assumption that all market agents are perfectly informed and rational and, accordingly, form homogeneous expectations. The model does not explain decision-making processes or expectation formation, nor does it detect potential psychological and institutional factors that might significantly influence decision making processes and market participants’ reactions to news. Since assumptions of the model critically determine its validity, we conclude that comprehensiveness of the rational bubble model is, to put it mildly, limited.",
publisher = "Univerzitet u Beogradu - Ekonomski fakultet, Beograd",
journal = "Economic Annals",
title = "Racionalni špekulativni baloni - kritički pogled, Rational speculative bubbles: A critical view",
pages = "99-73",
number = "174-175",
volume = "52",
doi = "10.2298/EKA0775073R"
}
Radonjić, O.. (2007). Racionalni špekulativni baloni - kritički pogled. in Economic Annals
Univerzitet u Beogradu - Ekonomski fakultet, Beograd., 52(174-175), 73-99.
https://doi.org/10.2298/EKA0775073R
Radonjić O. Racionalni špekulativni baloni - kritički pogled. in Economic Annals. 2007;52(174-175):73-99.
doi:10.2298/EKA0775073R .
Radonjić, Ognjen, "Racionalni špekulativni baloni - kritički pogled" in Economic Annals, 52, no. 174-175 (2007):73-99,
https://doi.org/10.2298/EKA0775073R . .

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